This past week, the federal authorities briefly lost control of the major highway out of the federal capital to the core north. It was a profoundly symbolic moment for the Nigerian post-colonial state as it seems to buckle under the strains and stress of maintaining law and order in an increasingly distressed nation.
By the end of the week, in what could be described as the symbolic equivalent of an assault on a national Holy Shrine, the kidnappers struck at the hometown of the president taking with them the District Head of Daura, Magajin Garin Daura, Mallam Musa Umar. It doesn’t get more humiliating than that. But there is a difference between revolutions and social revolts. There is nothing that has happened in the world so far that has disproved the foundational socialist thesis that revolutions require an organized middle class cadre to pioneer and power it. The lower masses do not do revolutions. Revolutions are a brisk and bloody affair requiring a disciplined and organized upper cadre to canalize and channel the volcanic rage.
On three different occasions, 1964/65, 1983 and 1993 disputed or aborted elections have led Nigeria to the path of anarchy and disintegration. On the few occasions that federal elections succeeded, they have always been preceded by elite buy in and substantial negotiation until the subsisting pacts collapse, 1958, 1979 and 1999.
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