Polling industry insiders in the U.S. agree on one thing — the criminal conviction of Donald Trump has not had a dramatic effect on the presidential election. But here's what they have found.Donald Trump led Joe Biden in most, but not all, surveys before he became a convicted felon. Now? It's about the same. Polling industry insiders in the U.S. agree on one thing: The criminal conviction of Donald Trump has not had any obvious effect on the presidential election.
Those polls were dealing in hypotheticals. On May 31, reality struck when a Manhattan jury found Trump guilty 34 times of falsifying business records to pay off a porn star., surveys before the verdict; that hasn't changed. If there has been an effect, it's been so small that pollsters disagree on whether it's actually happened — in other words, if it was a methodological rounding error.
A reason Trump has been leading most surveys is that, in recent months, less-engaged voters have shifted his way — people who don't usually follow politics, only vote sometimes, and who overwhelmingly favoured Biden in 2020, but not anymore. These voters might be dissatisfied with the economy, and with Biden, but they really haven't spent much time thinking about the pros and cons of Trump.
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