If you’ve ever wondered why a penalty has an expected-goals value of 0.78, it’s because on average 78 per cent of penalties are scored. But in the this season, the conversion rate is almost 92 per cent — 44 goals from 48 penalties. Earlier this month, ’s saved Bruno Fernandes’ penalty to end a run of 32 successful penalties in a row. Advertisement So what is going on? Variance is one explanation. Penalties are binary; they are scored or they are not.
Premier League penalty conversion rates have been as low as 65.5 per cent in 2001-02 and as high as 83.9 per cent in 2013-14. There are periods when players score or miss more. In fact, three of the last five seasons have seen above-average conversion rates. That recent spike might owe to a law change ahead of the 2019-20 season, which required goalkeepers to be on the line — preventing them from starting behind it to jump forward — and minimised their movement. It takes skilled goalkeepers 0.6 to 1 second to dive to the corners from the centre of the goal, and penalties can reach the goal as quickly as
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