New data shows COVID crime surge starting to recede. Can Republicans still rely on crime to counter Democrats' advantage on abortion?

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Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, Democrats have won election after election while promising to protect abortion access. For the GOP, crime was supposed to be an equal and opposite force, but falling crime rates mean the message has fizzled.

Yet the GOP is still counting on the same apocalyptic crime message from 2020 and 2022 to persuade voters in 2024. They cite the recent controversy over criminal justice reform in Washington, D.C., which requires congressional approval. Republicans objected to the D.C. bill, which would lower penalties for many crimes. That was of little surprise, since the GOP has generally distrusted D.C. home rule.

“House Democrats had a meltdown when President Biden deemed their vote to support reduced penalties for violent crime too extreme,” Will Reinert, spokesman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, told Yahoo News. “These members just saw New York become a graveyard for Democratic campaigns on the wrong side of public safety, and they fear they are digging a grave for their own political careers.

And Trump’s strongest potential rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, recently undertook a tour of cities run by Democrats, where he spoke to law enforcement groups and touted his own record on public safety. “If you’re engaged in mob violence in Florida, you ain’t going to be treated like they do in Portland,”, referencing the chaotic protests that gripped Oregon’s largest city in 2020 and eventual led its progressive mayor, Ted Wheeler, to adopt a more aggressive attitude toward policing.

” reveals, lingering COVID aftershocks in America’s urban cores have combined with endemic symptoms of “disorder” to heighten a sense of lawlessness in some cities. Part of the discrepancy may be that while abortion is a wrenching moral, religious and emotional issue, the political contours around reproductive rights are clear. If Democrats have a majority in a legislative chamber or court bench, they will protect abortion rights; Republicans will restrict them when in power. The same cannot be said about criminal justice, which involves overlapping jurisdictions and branches of government — very little of it at the federal level.

“Joe Biden is one of the few politicians who has effectively crafted a balanced response to all of these issues,” says Thomas Abt, a leading criminologist at the University of Maryland who chaired the Council on Criminal Justice’s Violent Crime Working Group. “Biden has probably navigated better than anyone else how to balance social justice with public safety.

 

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