How Moore’s Law Made Google Possible

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Right after Gordon Moore’s prescient prognostication, anyone with a slide rule — or a Texas Instruments calculator — could have easily run some numbers and determined that within a generation there would be computational gains a billionfold or more.

Companies that develop products for the world in its present state are doomed for failure, he says. Successful products are created to take advantage of tools and infrastructure of the future. When Google whiteboards new products, it assumes they will be powered by technologies that don’t exist yet, or do currently exist and are prohibitively expensive.

A clear example of this came in 2004 when Google announced Gmail, its web-based email product. It was not the first entry in the category. But the competitors offered very limited storage — the most popular product at the time, Microsoft’s Hotmail, gave users 2 megabytes of free storage. Users constantly had to pare down their inboxes. Gmail gave users aof storage — five hundred times the industry standard.

When Page takes meetings with Google’s employees, he relentlessly badgers them for not proposing more ambitious ideas.Earlier, Steve Jobs of Apple had a similar conundrum when releasing the Macintosh. The problem was that in 1984, technology was not ready for the computer his team had designed.

Ray Kurzweil, the great inventor and artificial intelligence pioneer now at Google, has a theory about those who are best suited to create groundbreaking products. The common wisdom, he says, is that one cannot predict the future. Kurzweil insists that, because of Moore’s Law and other yardsticks of improvement, you

 

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