Take Five: Much to say in Tokyo (and Davos)

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Japan's central bank looks set to raise its inflation forecasts and debate further policy tweaks, just as business leaders and policymakers descend (in person this time) on the Swiss resort of Davos to put the world to rights.

Just as much focus will be on the two billion journeys expected to carry passengers to their hometowns to celebrate. Mainland markets close for the following week, but holiday anecdotes on willingness to travel, spend and mingle might guide their expectations about how the reopening will unfold.. That's not least because, come spring and a year on from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the numbers will show a much smaller rise and, in some cases, even a decline.

Headline numbers might be flattered by quite how bad things were last year, but under the surface, core inflation is still climbing. And this number is what keeps central bankersare due. Core inflation in all four regions is mostly rising and above target. The worst may have passed, but it's likely to mark the end of the beginning, rather than the beginning of the end.

 

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