The world is entering a period of high-stakes experimentation, with cities and countries serving as open-air laboratories for how to most safely and effectively reopen amid the coronavirus.
The first wave of reopenings, predominantly in Asia and Europe, are providing a preview of what could become a continual process of experimentation and recalibration. Countries have little choice but to guess at stomach-turning ethical calculations. How many lives should be risked to save a thousand people from unemployment? To stop a generation of kids from falling behind in school? To salvage a sense of normalcy?
Germany, meanwhile, is inviting back older children who, the thinking goes, might pose a higher risk of transmission but will better comply with rules on masks and distancing.South Korea’s government is gambling on citizens voluntarily observing a litany of guidelines on everyday interactions, like bowing instead of hugging at funerals.
These are: Keeping infections low, to prevent health services from getting overwhelmed; keeping deaths low, which entails deterring higher-risk infections; and controlling economic and social burdens. The only way to know for sure whether a policy’s upsides are worth its costs is, in many cases, to try it and watch what happens.
India, on the other hand, saw a sharper increase after some restrictions were lifted — raising the possibility of a return to lockdown, as some Chinese cities have already done. That has forced world leaders to confront a question that ethicists have wrestled with for years: How much should society be willing to sacrifice to save a life?
For President Donald Trump, more than any other leader so far, the upsides of reopening exceed even the most extreme risk — he is also among the only leaders to push for reopening as cases continue rising in many parts of the country. That, experts warn, could invite more economic damage than relief.